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2003 Segal Health Plan Cost Trend Survey (published in November 2002)
Abstract
The 2003 Segal Health Plan Cost Trend Survey presents 2003 cost trend projections for the following plans:
- Medical Plans Trend rates are projected to increase for all medical plan types in 2003. Health maintenance organizations are expected to experience the greatest increase in trend rates in 2003 relative to 2002 projections.
- Prescription Drug Plans As it has for the last several years, the cost of prescription drug coverage is expected to continue to increase at a rate of nearly 20 percent in 2003.
- Dental Plans Although dental plan trends remain well below medical plan trends, dental trend rates are on the rise.
The following table summarizes 2003 trend projections:
| Medical Plans (Actives and Retirees Under Age 65) | (without Rx) | (with Rx) |
|---|---|---|
| Non-Network Fee-for-Service (FFS) Plans | 15.4% | 16.2% |
| Preferred Provider Organizations (PPOs) | 13.2% | 14.5% |
| Point-of-Service (POS) Plans | 13.7% | 14.9% |
| Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) | 13.1% | 14.4% |
| High-Deductible Plans* | 15.0% | 15.9% |
| Medical Plans (Retirees Age 65 and Older) | (without Rx) | (with Rx) |
|---|---|---|
| Non-Network FFS Plans | 9.7% | 13.0% |
| Medicare HMOs | 12.1% | 14.5% |
| Prescription Drug Carve-Out Plans | Actives and Retirees Under Age 65 | Retirees Age 65 and Older |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | 19.5% | 19.0% |
| Mail Order | 18.9% | 19.3% |
| Dental Plans | |
|---|---|
| Non-Network FFS Plans | 7.8% |
| Dental Provider Organizations (DPOs) | 6.5% |
| Dental Maintenance Organizations (DMOs) | 6.0% |
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The Segal Company obtained 2003 trend projects by surveying insurance companies, managed care organizations (MCOs), pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) and third party administrators (TPAs).
The 2003 Segal Health Plan Cost Trend Survey also:
- Reports actual 2002 trend data, which reflects a representative sample of Segal Company clients,
- Addresses the accuracy of trend projections by comparing 2001 trend forecasts by national and regional insurers, MCOs, PBMs and TPAs for group medical, prescription drug benefit and dental plans to the actual average trend rates experienced by the health plans covered by those underwriters for the exact same 12-month period,
- Shows projected trends for hospital and physician services for non-network and network medical plans, and
- Compares medical trend projections by region to nationwide projections.
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